Statistical modeling of acute and chronic pain patient-reported outcomes obtained from ecological momentary assessment.

ABSTRACT: Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) allows for the collection of participant-reported outcomes (PROs), including pain, in the normal environment at high resolution and with reduced recall bias. Ecological momentary assessment is an important component in studies of pain, providing detailed information about the frequency, intensity, and degree of interference of individuals' pain. However, there is no universally agreed on standard for summarizing pain measures from repeated PRO assessment using EMA into a single, clinically meaningful measure of pain. Here, we quantify the accuracy of summaries (eg, mean and median) of pain outcomes obtained from EMA and the effect of thresholding these summaries to obtain binary clinical end points of chronic pain status (yes/no). Data applications and simulations indicate that binarizing empirical estimators (eg, sample mean, random intercept linear mixed model) can perform well. However, linear mixed-effect modeling estimators that account for the nonlinear relationship between average and variability of pain scores perform better for quantifying the true average pain and reduce estimation error by up to 50%, with larger improvements for individuals with more variable pain scores. We also show that binarizing pain scores (eg, <3 and ≥3) can lead to a substantial loss of statistical power (40%-50%). Thus, when examining pain outcomes using EMA, the use of linear mixed models using the entire scale (0-10) is superior to splitting the outcomes into 2 groups (<3 and ≥3) providing greater statistical power and sensitivity.

Mortality reduction and cumulative excess incidence (CEI) in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening era.

The extent to which PSA screening is related to prostate cancer mortality reduction in the United States (US) is controversial. US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) data from 1980 to 2016 were examined to assess the relationship between prostate cancer mortality and cumulative excess incidence (CEI) in the PSA screening era and to clarify the impact of race on this relationship. CEI was considered as a surrogate for the intensity of prostate cancer screening with PSA testing and subsequent biopsy as appropriate. Data from 163,982,733 person-years diagnosed with 544,058 prostate cancers (9 registries, 9% of US population) were examined. Strong inverse linear relationships were noted between CEI and prostate cancer mortality, and 317,356 prostate cancer deaths were avoided. Eight regions of the US demonstrated prostate cancer mortality reduction of 46.0-63.7%. On a per population basis, the lives of more black men than white men were saved in three of four registries with sufficient black populations for comparison. Factor(s) independent of CEI (potential effects of treatment advances) explained 14.6% of the mortality benefit (p-value = 0.3357) while there was a significant main effect of CEI (effect = -0.0064; CI: [-0.0088, -0.0040]; p-value < 0.0001). Therefore, there is a strong relationship between CEI and prostate cancer mortality reduction that was not related to factors independent of screening utilization. Minority populations have experienced large mortality reductions in the context of PSA mass utilization.

Racial disparities in prostate cancer mortality: a model-based decomposition of contributing factors.

To investigate the relative contributions of natural history and clinical interventions to racial disparities in prostate cancer mortality in the United States, we extended a model that was previously calibrated to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence rates for the general population and for Black men. The extended model integrated SEER data on curative treatment frequencies and cancer-specific survival. Starting with the model for all men, we replaced up to 9 components with corresponding components for Black men, projecting age-standardized mortality rates for ages 40-84 years at each step. Based on projections in 2019, the increased frequency of developing disease, more aggressive tumor features, and worse cancer-specific survival in Black men diagnosed at local-regional and distant stages explained 38%, 34%, 22%, and 8% of the modeled disparity in mortality. Our results point to intensified screening and improved care in Black men as priority areas to achieve greater equity.

Anti-Neutrophil Extracellular Trap Antibodies in Antiphospholipid Antibody-Positive Patients: Results From the Antiphospholipid Syndrome Alliance for Clinical Trials and InternatiOnal Networking Clinical Database and Repository.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to elucidate the presence, antigen specificities, and potential clinical associations of anti-neutrophil extracellular trap (anti-NET) antibodies in a multinational cohort of antiphospholipid (aPL) antibody-positive patients who did not have lupus. METHODS: Anti-NET IgG/IgM levels were measured in serum samples from 389 aPL-positive patients; 308 patients met the classification criteria for antiphospholipid syndrome. Multivariate logistic regression with best variable model selection was used to determine clinical associations. For a subset of the patients (n = 214), we profiled autoantibodies using an autoantigen microarray platform. RESULTS: We found elevated levels of anti-NET IgG and/or IgM in 45% of the aPL-positive patients. High anti-NET antibody levels are associated with more circulating myeloperoxidase (MPO)-DNA complexes, which are a biomarker of NETs. When considering clinical manifestations, positive anti-NET IgG was associated with lesions affecting the white matter of the brain, even after adjusting for demographic variables and aPL profiles. Anti-NET IgM tracked with complement consumption after controlling for aPL profiles; furthermore, patient serum samples containing high levels of anti-NET IgM efficiently deposited complement C3d on NETs. As determined by autoantigen microarray, positive testing for anti-NET IgG was significantly associated with several autoantibodies, including those recognizing citrullinated histones, heparan sulfate proteoglycan, laminin, MPO-DNA complexes, and nucleosomes. Anti-NET IgM positivity was associated with autoantibodies targeting single-stranded DNA, double-stranded DNA, and proliferating cell nuclear antigen. CONCLUSION: These data reveal high levels of anti-NET antibodies in 45% of aPL-positive patients, where they potentially activate the complement cascade. While anti-NET IgM may especially recognize DNA in NETs, anti-NET IgG species appear to be more likely to target NET-associated protein antigens.

Evaluation of Prostate Cancer Screening Strategies in a Low-Resource, High-risk Population in the Bahamas.

Importance: The benefit of prostate-specific antigen screening may be greatest in high-risk populations, including men of African descent in the Caribbean. However, organized screening may not be sustainable in low- and middle-income countries. Objective: To evaluate the expected population outcomes and resource use of conservative prostate-specific antigen screening programs in the Bahamas. Design Setting and Participants: Prostate cancer incidence from GLOBOCAN and prostate-specific antigen screening data for 4300 men from the Bahamas were used to recalibrate 2 decision analytical models previously used to study prostate-specific antigen screening for Black men in the United States. Data on age and results obtained from prostate-specific antigen screening tests performed in Nassau from 2004 to 2018 and in Freeport from 2013 to 2018 were used. Data were analyzed from January 15, 2021, to March 23, 2022. Interventions: One or 2 screenings for men aged 45 to 60 years and conservative criteria for biopsy (prostate-specific antigen level >10 ng/mL) and curative treatment (Gleason score ≥8) were modeled. Categories of Gleason scores were 6 or lower, 7, and 8 or higher, with higher scores indicating higher risk of cancer progression and death. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected numbers of tests and biopsies, prostate cancer (over)diagnoses, lives saved, and life-years gained owing to screening from 2022 to 2040. Results: In this decision analytical modeling study, screening histories from 4300 men (median age, 54 years; range, 13-101 years) tested between 2004 and 2018 at 2 sites in the Bahamas were used to inform the models. Screening once at 60 years of age was projected to involve 40 000 to 42 000 tests (range between models) and prevent 500 to 600 of 10 000 to 14 000 prostate cancer deaths. Screening at 50 and 60 years doubled the number of tests but increased lives saved by only 15% to 16%. Among onetime strategies, screening once at 60 years of age involved the fewest tests per life saved (74-84 tests) and curative treatments per life saved (1.2-2.8 treatments). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this decision analytical modeling study of prostate cancer screening in the Bahamas suggest that limited screening offered modest benefits that varied with screening ages and number of tests. The results can be combined with data on capacity constraints and evaluated relative to competing national public health priorities.

Decreased Left Atrial Reservoir Strain Is Associated with Adverse Outcomes in Restrictive Cardiomyopathy.

Background: Restrictive cardiomyopathy (RCM) places patients at high risk for adverse events. In this study, we aim to evaluate the association between left atrial function and time to adverse events such as all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalizations related to RCM. Material and Methods: In this single-center study, ninety-eight patients with a clinical diagnosis of RCM were recruited from our registry: 30 women (31%); age (mean ± standard deviation) 61 ± 13 years. These patients underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging from May 2007 to September 2015. Left atrial (LA) function (reservoir, contractile, and conduit strain), LA diameter and area, and left ventricular function (global longitudinal strain, ejection fraction), and volume were quantified, and the presence of late gadolinium enhancement was visually assessed. The cutoff value of the LA reservoir strain was selected based on tertile. An adjusted Cox proportional regression analysis was used to assess time to adverse outcomes with a median follow up of 49 months. Results: In our cohort, all-cause mortality was 36% (35/98). Composite events (all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalizations) occurred in 56% of patients (55/98). All-cause mortality and composite events were significantly associated with a decreased LA reservoir strain (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.957, p = 0.002 and aHR = 0.969, p = 0.008) using a stepwise elimination of imaging variables, demographics, and comorbidities. All-cause mortality and composite events were six and almost four times higher, respectively, in patients with the LA reservoir strain <15% (aHR = 5.971, p = 0.005, and HR = 4.252, p = 0.001) compared to patients with the LA reservoir strain >34%. Survival was significantly reduced in patients with an LA reservoir strain <15% (p = 0.008). Conclusions: The decreased LA reservoir strain is independently associated with time to adverse events in patients with RCM.

Joint modeling and multiple comparisons with the best of data from a SMART with survival outcomes.

A dynamic treatment regimen (DTR) is a sequence of decision rules that can alter treatments or doses based on outcomes from prior treatment. In the case of two lines of treatment, a DTR specifies first-line treatment, and second-line treatment for responders and treatment for non-responders to the first-line treatment. A sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (SMART) is one such type of trial that has been designed to assess DTRs. The primary goal of our project is to identify the treatments, covariates, and their interactions result in the best overall survival rate. Many previously proposed methods to analyze data with survival outcomes from a SMART use inverse probability weighting and provide non-parametric estimation of survival rates, but no other information. Other methods have been proposed to identify and estimate the optimal DTR, but inference issues were seldom addressed. We apply a joint modeling approach to provide unbiased survival estimates as a mechanism to quantify baseline and time-varying covariate effects, treatment effects, and their interactions within regimens. The issue of multiple comparisons at specific time points is addressed using multiple comparisons with the best method.

Patient Self-Management of Benign Paroxysmal Positional Vertigo: Instructional Video Development and Preliminary Evaluation of Behavioral Outcomes.

IMPORTANCE: Benign paroxysmal positional vertigo of the posterior canal (PC-BPPV) is a common disorder that is diagnosed using the Dix-Hallpike test (DHT) and treated with the canalith repositioning maneuver (CRM). Patients often seek out information about BPPV self-management, but studies to develop and evaluate patient-centered instructional resources are limited. OBJECTIVE: To develop and preliminarily evaluate a patient-oriented PC-BPPV self-management instructional video. METHODS: We assembled a multidisciplinary team and used an iterative process to develop a theory-based instructional video for self-performing the DHT and CRM. We recruited individuals searching online for information about dizziness to complete a survey and review the video. Patients rated the video by scoring seven questions that measure behavioral intent to perform the DHT or CRM (attitudes/acceptability, perceived self-efficacy, and social norms) using a 10-point scale (higher scores = more favorable ratings). A multilevel linear regression model was used to determine the association of age, sex, race, and education with video ratings. RESULTS: Of the 771 participants who completed the survey, 124 (16%) also reviewed and evaluated the PC-BPPV instructional video. The video review participants were typically more than or equal to 55 years old (70%; 93/124), women (70%; 87/124), and White (70%; 88/124). These participants also generally reported acute-subacute and moderate-to-severe dizziness, and 60% (75/124) reported typical BPPV triggers. The median scores for the seven questions about attitudes/acceptability, self-efficacy, and social norms on the PC-BPPV instructional video were all more than or equal to 9 out of 10 with interquartile ratios that ranged from 7 to 9 at the 25th percentile to 10 at the 75th percentile. Female sex was the only demographic variable associated with higher video ratings (coefficient, 1.21, 95% CI 0.60-1.83). CONCLUSION: This study found that participants rated the PC-BPPV self-management video favorably on measures that contribute to behavioral intent to perform the DHT or CRM. The findings provide support that the video is appropriate to use in future studies that evaluate patient self-performance accuracy and outcomes.

Incidence and predictors of persistent pelvic pain following hysterectomy in women with chronic pelvic pain.

BACKGROUND: Chronic pelvic pain is a debilitating problem that afflicts 15% to 20% of women in the United States. Although more than 200,000 hysterectomies are performed annually for the treatment of chronic pelvic pain, previous studies indicate that 1 in 4 women undergo the discomfort and morbidity of hysterectomy without the relief of pain. The factors that predict treatment failure remain poorly characterized. OBJECTIVE: To describe the incidence of persistent pelvic pain 6 months following hysterectomy in women with chronic pelvic pain and determine whether a simple, self-reported measure of central sensitization is associated with a greater risk of persistent pelvic pain following hysterectomy. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a prospective, observational cohort study of women undergoing hysterectomy at an academic tertiary care center for a benign indication. Patients with preoperative chronic pelvic pain, defined as average pelvic pain ≥3 on a 0 to 10 numeric rating scale for >3 months before hysterectomy, were included in this analysis. The patients completed validated assessments of pain, anxiety, depression, and centralized pain (using the 2011 Fibromyalgia Survey Criteria, 0-31 points) preoperatively and 6 months after hysterectomy. The demographic information, surgical history, intraoperative findings, and surgical pathology were abstracted from the electronic medical records. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the independent predictors of persistent pelvic pain 6 months following hysterectomy, defined as <50% improvement in pelvic pain severity. RESULTS: Among 176 participants with pelvic pain before hysterectomy, 126 (71.6%) were retained at 6 months, and 15 (11.9%) reported persistent pelvic pain. There was no difference in age (P=.46), race (P=.55), average pain severity during menses (P=.68), average overall pelvic pain (P=.10), or pain duration (P=.80) in those with and without persistent pelvic pain. Whereas intraoperative findings of endometriosis (P=.05) and uterine fibroids (P=.03) were associated with a higher incidence of persistent pain on univariate analysis, the surgical route (P=.46), pelvic adhesions (0.51), uterine weight (P=.66), and adenomyosis on histopathology (P=.27) were not related to the risk of persistent pain. Higher preoperative centralized pain scores (P=.01) but not depression (P=.64) or anxiety (P=.45) were more common in women with persistent pelvic pain. Multivariate logistic regression adjusting for age, preoperative pain severity, anxiety, depression, and operative findings of endometriosis and fibroids indicated that every 1-point increase in centralized pain before hysterectomy was associated with a 27% increase in the odds of persistent pelvic pain (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.57) 6 months after surgery. CONCLUSION: Although the majority of women with chronic pelvic pain report considerable improvement in pain following hysterectomy, higher degrees of centralized pain before hysterectomy is a robust predictor of persistent pelvic pain.

The Impact of Intensifying Prostate Cancer Screening in Black Men: A Model-Based Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Black men in the United States have markedly higher rates of prostate cancer than the general population. National guidelines for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening do not provide clear guidance for this high-risk population. The purpose of this study is to estimate the benefit and harm of intensified PSA screening in Black men. METHODS: Two microsimulation models of prostate cancer calibrated to incidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program among Black men project the impact of different screening strategies (varying screening intervals, starting and stopping ages, and biopsy utilization following an abnormal PSA) on disease-specific mortality and overdiagnosis. Each strategy induces a mean lead time (MLT) for detected cases. A longer MLT reduces mortality according to estimates combining the US and European prostate cancer screening trials but increases overdiagnosis. RESULTS: Under historical population screening, Black men had similar MLT to men of all races and similar mortality reduction (range between models = 21%-24% vs 20%-24%) but a higher frequency of overdiagnosis (75-86 vs 58-60 per 1000 men). Screening Black men aged 40-84 years annually would increase both mortality reduction (29%-31%) and overdiagnosis (112-129 per 1000). Restricting screening to ages 45-69 years would still achieve substantial mortality reduction (26%-29%) with lower overdiagnosis (51-61 per 1000). Increasing biopsy utilization to 100% of abnormal tests would further reduce mortality but substantially increase overdiagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Annual screening in Black men is expected to reduce mortality more than that estimated under historical screening. Limiting screening to men younger than 70 years is expected to help reduce overdiagnosis.

Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and Recent Increases in Advanced Prostate Cancer.

Recent studies show decreasing prostate-specific antigen utilization and increasing incidence of metastatic prostate cancer in the United States after national recommendations against screening in 2012. Yet, whether the increasing incidence of metastatic prostate cancer is consistent in magnitude with the expected impact of decreased screening is unknown. We compared observed incidence of metastatic prostate cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published effects of continued historical screening and discontinued screening starting in 2013 projected by 2 models of disease natural history, screening, and diagnosis. The observed rate of new metastatic prostate cancer cases in 2017 was 44%-60% of the projected increase under discontinued screening relative to continued screening. Thus, the observed increase in incident metastatic prostate cancer is consistent with the expected impact of reduced screening. Although this comparison does not establish a causal relationship, it highlights the plausible role of decreased screening in the observed trend.

Lifetime Benefits and Harms of Prostate-Specific Antigen-Based Risk-Stratified Screening for Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Studies conducted in Swedish populations have shown that men with lowest prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels at ages 44-50 years and 60 years have very low risk of future distant metastasis or death from prostate cancer. This study investigates benefits and harms of screening strategies stratified by PSA levels. METHODS: PSA levels and diagnosis patterns from two microsimulation models of prostate cancer progression, detection, and mortality were compared against results of the Malmö Preventive Project, which stored serum and tracked subsequent prostate cancer diagnoses for 25 years. The models predicted the harms (tests and overdiagnoses) and benefits (lives saved and life-years gained) of PSA-stratified screening strategies compared with biennial screening from age 45 years to age 69 years. RESULTS: Compared with biennial screening for ages 45-69 years, lengthening screening intervals for men with PSA less than 1.0 ng/mL at age 45 years led to 46.8-47.0% fewer tests (range between models), 0.9-2.1% fewer overdiagnoses, and 3.1-3.8% fewer lives saved. Stopping screening when PSA was less than 1.0 ng/mL at age 60 years and older led to 12.8-16.0% fewer tests, 5.0-24.0% fewer overdiagnoses, and 5.0-13.1% fewer lives saved. Differences in model results can be partially explained by differences in assumptions about the link between PSA growth and the risk of disease progression. CONCLUSION: Relative to a biennial screening strategy, PSA-stratified screening strategies investigated in this study substantially reduced the testing burden and modestly reduced overdiagnosis while preserving most lives saved. Further research is needed to clarify the link between PSA growth and disease progression.

Adjusted Citation Rate, an Alternative Metric to Measure the Impact of General Radiology Journals.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: The journal impact factor (JIF) is often used to assess the prestige of scientific journals. Citations from original articles and reviews as well as citations from noncitable items contribute to the numerator in these calculations. However, since noncitable articles are not included in the denominator, the JIF may be skewed by the types of articles and not accurately reflect the prestige of the journal. The purpose of our study was to develop an alternative and complementary metric by which journals may be assessed. This "adjusted citation rate metric" is based on citations that originate only from citable items in the journal. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We tabulated the number of citations and citable items for original articles from the Web of Science Core Collection for 5 consecutive years (2010-2014) for 20 general radiology journals. The adjusted citation rates (CR) per original article and reviews were calculated using only citations that originated from citable items. RESULTS: The adjusted CR in 2015 was similar to the JIF in 14 of the 20 journals, higher in four journals, and lower in two journals. Using this system, Radiology, Investigative Radiology, and European Radiology remained first, second, and third respectively among journals published in the field of general radiology. To allow for equal distribution of original articles vs reviews among general radiology journals, we calculated the adjusted CR where the standard distribution of original articles is 50%. CONCLUSION: Adjusted citation rate is an objective index for assessing journal impact that can serve as an alternative and complementary metric with which to measure the journal impact.

Water-fat magnetic resonance imaging quantifies relative proportions of brown and white adipose tissues: ex-vivo experiments.

Quantifying the amount of brown adipose tissue (BAT) within white adipose tissue (WAT) in human depots may serve as a target to combat obesity. We aimed to quantify proton density fat fraction (PDFF) of BAT and WAT in relatively pure and in mixed preparation using water-fat imaging. Three ex-vivo experiments were performed at 3 T using excised interscapular BAT and inguinal/subcutaneous WAT from mice. The first two experiments consisted of BAT and WAT in separate tubes, and the third used mixed preparation with graded quantities of BAT and WAT. To investigate the influence of partial volume on PDFF metrics, low ( 2.66 mm3 ) and high spatial resolution ( 0.55 mm3 acquired voxels) in two orthogonal three-dimensional sections were compared. The low-resolution acquisitions are corrected for T2* and multipeak lipid spectrum, thus considered "quantitative," whereas the high-resolution acquisitions are not corrected but were performed to better spatially segment BAT from WAT zones. As potential BAT metrics, we quantified the average PDFF and the volume of tissue having PDFF ≤50% ( VOLPDFF≤50% ) based on the PDFF histogram. In the first experiment, the average PDFF of BAT was 23±6% and 21±7.6% and the average PDFF of WAT was 76±7% and 87±7% using high- and low-resolution techniques, respectively. A similar trend with excellent reproducibility in average PDFF of BAT and WAT was observed in the second experiment. In the third experiment over the four acquisitions, the BAT-dominant tube demonstrated lower PDFF (mean ± SD) of 55±2% than WAT-dominant (69±4%) and WAT-only tubes (88±4%) . Estimating VOLPDFF≤50% , the BAT-dominant tube demonstrated higher volume of 0.26 cm3 than WAT-dominant ( 0.16 cm3 ) and WAT-only tubes ( 0.01 cm3 ). The presence of BAT exhibits a lower PDFF relative to WAT, thus allowing segmentation of low PDFF tissue for quantification of volume representative of BAT. Future studies will determine the clinical relevance of BAT volume within human depots.

Self-Acupressure for Older Adults With Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: This double-blind randomized controlled trial aimed to test the efficacy of self-administered acupressure for pain and physical function improvement for older adults with knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Participants were community-dwelling adults with symptomatic knee OA (n = 150, mean age 73 years), randomized to 1 of 3 groups: verum acupressure, sham acupressure, or usual care. Participants in the verum and sham groups, but not those in the usual care group, were taught to self-apply acupressure once daily, 5 days/week for 8 weeks. Assessments were collected during center visits at baseline, and at 4 and 8 weeks. In addition, pain level was assessed weekly by phone using a numeric rating scale (NRS). Outcomes included the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain subscale (primary), and subjective and objective physical function measures and the NRS and physical function measures (secondary). Linear mixed regression analysis was conducted to test between-group differences in mean changes from baseline for the outcomes at 8 weeks. RESULTS: Compared with usual care, both verum and sham acupressure participants experienced significant improvements in WOMAC pain (mean difference -1.27 units [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -1.95, -0.58] and -1.24 units [95% CI -1.92, -0.55], respectively), NRS pain (-0.74 units [95% CI -1.24, -0.24] and -0.51 units [95% CI -1.01, -0.01], respectively), and WOMAC function (-4.83 units [95% CI -6.99, -2.67] and -4.21 units [95% CI -6.37, -2.04], respectively) at 8 weeks. There were no significant differences between the verum and sham acupressure groups on any of the outcomes. CONCLUSION: Self-administered acupressure is superior to usual care in pain and physical function improvement for older adults with knee OA. The reason for the benefits is unclear, and the placebo effect may play a role.

A joint model of cancer incidence, metastasis, and mortality.

Many diseases, especially cancer, are not static, but rather can be summarized by a series of events or stages (e.g. diagnosis, remission, recurrence, metastasis, death). Most available methods to analyze multi-stage data ignore intermediate events and focus on the terminal event or consider (time to) multiple events as independent. Competing-risk or semi-competing-risk models are often deficient in describing the complex relationship between disease progression events which are driven by a shared progression stochastic process. A multi-stage model can only examine two stages at a time and thus fails to capture the effect of one stage on the time spent between other stages. Moreover, most models do not account for latent stages. We propose a semi-parametric joint model of diagnosis, latent metastasis, and cancer death and use nonparametric maximum likelihood to estimate covariate effects on the risks of intermediate events and death and the dependence between them. We illustrate the model with Monte Carlo simulations and analysis of real data on prostate cancer from the SEER database.

The efficacy of prostate-specific antigen screening: Impact of key components in the ERSPC and PLCO trials.

BACKGROUND: The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening significantly reduced prostate cancer mortality (rate ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.91). The US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) trial indicated no such reduction but had a wide 95% CI (rate ratio for prostate cancer mortality, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.87-1.36). Standard meta-analyses are unable to account for key differences between the trials that can impact the estimated effects of screening and the trials' point estimates. METHODS: The authors calibrated 2 microsimulation models to individual-level incidence and mortality data from 238,936 men participating in the ERSPC and PLCO trials. A cure parameter for the underlying efficacy of screening was estimated by the models separately for each trial. The authors changed step-by-step major known differences in trial settings, including enrollment and attendance patterns, screening intervals, PSA thresholds, biopsy receipt, control arm contamination, and primary treatment, to reflect a more ideal protocol situation and differences between the trials. RESULTS: Using the cure parameter estimated for the ERSPC, the models projected 19% to 21% and 6% to 8%, respectively, prostate cancer mortality reductions in the ERSPC and PLCO settings. Using this cure parameter, the models projected a reduction of 37% to 43% under annual screening with 100% attendance and biopsy compliance and no contamination. The cure parameter estimated for the PLCO trial was 0. CONCLUSIONS: The observed cancer mortality reduction in screening trials appears to be highly sensitive to trial protocol and practice settings. Accounting for these differences, the efficacy of PSA screening in the PLCO setting is not necessarily inconsistent with ERSPC results. Cancer 2018;124:1197-206. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Opioid Prescribing Patterns, Patient Use, and Postoperative Pain After Hysterectomy for Benign Indications.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify physician prescribing patterns and patient opioid use in the 2 weeks after hysterectomy at an academic institution and to determine whether patient factors predict postsurgical opioid use and pain recovery. METHODS: We conducted a prospective quality initiative study by recruiting all English-speaking patients undergoing hysterectomy for benign, nonobstetric indications at a university hospital between August 2015 and December 2015, excluding those with major medical morbidities or substance abuse. Before hysterectomy, patients completed the Fibromyalgia Survey, a validated measure of centralized pain. After hysterectomy, opioid use (converted to oral morphine equivalents) and pain scores (0-10 numeric rating scale) were collected by a daily diary and a structured telephone interview 14 days after surgery. Primary outcomes were total opioid prescribed and consumed in the 2 weeks after hysterectomy. Secondary outcomes included daily opioid use and daily pain severity for 14 days after hysterectomy. RESULTS: Of 103 eligible patients, 102 (99%) agreed to participate, including 44 (43.1%) laparoscopic, 42 (41.2%) vaginal, and 16 (15.7%) abdominal hysterectomies. Telephone surveys were completed on 89 (87%) participants; diaries were returned from 60 (59%) participants. Diary nonresponders had different baseline characteristics than nonresponders. Median amount of opioid prescribed was 200 oral morphine equivalents (interquartile range 150-250). Patients reported using approximately half of the opioids prescribed with a median excess of 110 morphine equivalents (interquartile range 40-150). The best fit model of total opioid consumption identified preoperative Fibromyalgia Survey Score, overall body pain, preoperative opioid use, prior endometriosis, abdominal hysterectomy (compared with laparoscopic), and uterine weight as significant predictors. Highest tertile of Fibromyalgia Survey Score was associated with greater daily opioid consumption (13.9 [95% CI 3.0-24.8] greater oral morphine equivalents at baseline, P=.02). CONCLUSION: Gynecologists at a large academic medical center prescribe twice the amount of opioids than the average patient uses after hysterectomy. A personalized approach to prescribing opioids for postoperative pain should be considered.

Reconciling the Effects of Screening on Prostate Cancer Mortality in the ERSPC and PLCO Trials.

BACKGROUND: The ERSPC (European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer) found that screening reduced prostate cancer mortality, but the PLCO (Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial) found no reduction. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether effects of screening on prostate cancer mortality relative to no screening differed between the ERSPC and PLCO. DESIGN: Cox regression of prostate cancer death in each trial group, adjusted for age and trial. Extended analyses accounted for increased incidence due to screening and diagnostic work-up in each group via mean lead times (MLTs), which were estimated empirically and using analytic or microsimulation models. SETTING: Randomized controlled trials in Europe and the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Men aged 55 to 69 (ERSPC) or 55 to 74 (PLCO) years at randomization. INTERVENTION: Prostate cancer screening. MEASUREMENTS: Prostate cancer incidence and survival from randomization; prostate cancer incidence in the United States before screening began. RESULTS: Estimated MLTs were similar in the ERSPC and PLCO intervention groups but were longer in the PLCO control group than the ERSPC control group. Extended analyses found no evidence that effects of screening differed between trials (P = 0.37 to 0.47 [range across MLT estimation approaches]) but strong evidence that benefit increased with MLT (P = 0.0027 to 0.0032). Screening was estimated to confer a 7% to 9% reduction in the risk for prostate cancer death per year of MLT. This translated into estimates of 25% to 31% and 27% to 32% lower risk for prostate cancer death with screening as performed in the ERSPC and PLCO intervention groups, respectively, compared with no screening. LIMITATION: The MLT is a simple metric of screening and diagnostic work-up. CONCLUSION: After differences in implementation and settings are accounted for, the ERSPC and PLCO provide compatible evidence that screening reduces prostate cancer mortality. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute.